Direct Treasury Simulator - Calculate Government Bond Yield
Simulate investments in Tesouro Direto (Selic, IPCA+ and Prefixed). Compare gross and net income, discounting the regressive income tax on fixed income.
What is the purpose?
This calculator simulates the yield on Treasury Direct bonds: Treasury IPCA+ (inflation protection), Treasury Prefixed (guaranteed profitability) and Treasury Selic (immediate liquidity). Shows the gross and net value after Income Tax according to the regressive table.
Formula Used
The accumulated gross amount (M_{bruto}) uses monthly compounded capitalization based on the equivalent rate of return:
M_{bruto} = P × (1 + i_{mensal})n
Where for Tesouro IPCA+, the total annualized rate (i_{total}) is given by inflation added to the real contracted rate:
i_{total} = (1 + i_{real}) × (1 + IPCA) - 1
Income tax (I) is levied only on profits (M_{bruto} - P) according to the fixed income regressive table (Law 11,033/2004):
- Up to 180 days: 22.5%
- From 181 to 360 days: 20%
- From 361 to 720 days: 17.5%
- Over 720 days: 15%
How to interpret the result?
When simulating, you see the final gross amount, the total Income Tax charged at the regressive rate of the term, and the final net amount that will remain available for redemption. It also presents the percentage net income accumulated in the period.
Practical Examples
- Example in Treasury Selic:
10.000,00 aplicados por 24 meses (730 dias) a uma taxa de Selic estável de 10,50% ao ano. Montante bruto:12,210.00. Gross income:2.210,00. Imposto de Renda (15%):331.50. Net amount to be redeemed: $ 11,878.50. - Example in Treasury IPCA+: $5,000.00 invested for 36 months with a real rate of 6.00% + IPCA of 4.50% per year. The total net accumulated profitability deducts 15% of IR from the nominal profitability generated.
Usage Tips
- The Selic Treasury is recommended for emergency reserves and short-term objectives, as it has daily liquidity and very low market fluctuation (mark-to-market).
- IPCA+ and Prefixed securities have daily mark-to-market. If you redeem before maturity, you could lose money or earn above the contracted rate. To ensure simulated profitability, plan to carry the security until the contractual maturity date.
- Investment in Treasury bonds is 100% guaranteed by the Federal Government, being considered the asset with the lowest credit risk in the Brazilian economy.
Important Observations
The simulations do not deduct B3's mandatory custody fee of 0.20% per year (exempt for Selic Treasury investments of up to $10,000.00), nor brokerage fees from partner brokers (which today are mostly zero). Future returns depend on actual market rates prevailing at the time of purchase. To consult the updated rates and carry out other official simulations, access the Official Portal of Tesouro Direto.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is Tesouro Direto and how does it work?
Tesouro Direto is the federal government program that allows individuals to purchase public bonds directly, lending money to the government in exchange for interest. It is considered the safest investment in Brazil, guaranteed by the National Treasury. It is possible to invest from $30.00 and the bonds have maturities ranging from 1 to 35 years.
What is the difference between Treasury Selic, IPCA+ and Prefixed?
Treasury Selic yields according to the basic interest rate (ideal for emergency reserves, has daily liquidity). Treasury IPCA+ yields IPCA plus a fixed rate (e.g. IPCA+6%), protecting purchasing power — ideal for the long term. Prefixed Treasury offers locked-in profitability on purchase (e.g. 12% per year), ideal when it is believed that interest rates will fall in the future.
How does Income Tax work at Tesouro Direto?
The IR at Tesouro Direto follows the fixed income regressive table: up to 180 days: 22.5%; from 181 to 360 days: 20%; from 361 to 720 days: 17.5%; over 720 days: 15%. The tax is only levied on income at the time of redemption or maturity. Those who hold the title for more than 2 years pay the lowest rate of 15%.
Is there a custody fee at Tesouro Direto?
Yes. B3 charges 0.20% per year on the value of securities as a custody fee, charged semiannually. Additionally, some brokers charge their own administration fee, although most digital brokers offer zero fees. It is important to check the fees of the chosen broker, as they directly impact net profitability.
Can I redeem the Tesouro Direto before maturity?
Yes. The government guarantees the repurchase of securities on all business days (except the last business day of each month). However, the repurchase price may be lower than the purchase price if market interest rates rise (mark-to-market risk in fixed-rate and IPCA+ securities). The Selic Treasury does not have this risk — its value fluctuates very little and early redemption rarely generates a loss.
Is Tesouro Direto safer than savings accounts?
Technically yes. Savings are guaranteed by the FGC (Credit Guarantee Fund) up to $ 250.000 por CPF por instituição. O Tesouro Direto é garantido pelo Tesouro Nacional — pelo próprio governo federal, o que na prática representa o menor risco possível dentro do sistema financeiro brasileiro. Além disso, o Tesouro Selic rende mais que a poupança na maioria dos cenários.
Qual o rendimento médio histórico do Tesouro Direto?
O Tesouro Selic acompanha a Selic histórica (que variou de 2% a 14,75% ao ano na última década). O IPCA+ historicamente entrega IPCA + 3% a 7% ao ano dependendo do momento de compra. O Prefixado ficou entre 8% e 14% ao ano. Em termos reais (descontada a inflação), o IPCA+ com taxa acima de 5% ao ano é considerado excelente para preservação de capital de longo prazo.
Como começar a investir no Tesouro Direto?
Para investir: (1) Abra conta em uma corretora habilitada pelo Tesouro Nacional (preferencialmente taxa zero como XP, Rico, Nubank, Inter); (2) Acesse o portal tesourodireto.com.br ou o app da corretora; (3) Escolha o título conforme seu objetivo; (4) Transfira o valor via PIX e execute a compra. Todo o processo leva menos de 15 minutos e o investimento mínimo é de aproximadamente $ 30.